BFCM Readiness Playbook · Free

See what your Black Friday offer could earn before you lock it.

Three costs decide your BFCM margin, and three different people set them. This 15-minute check adds them up on your own numbers. You get your discount floor, your kill-line, what your blended report will hide, and a dated plan counting back from Black Friday.

Start the 15-minute check See what it shows

 

Built by the team behind $15B+ GMV

What you walk away with

Your floor and kill-line

The deepest offer the weekend can fund under your assumptions, and the cost per new order at which prospecting gets capped.

What the blend hides

How a positive blended weekend can sit on top of an unprofitable paid-new segment.

Peak spend at risk

Planned spend tied to purchase signals you say are unchecked or have issues. Not measured waste.

A dated plan

Specific actions with dates and status, before and after the weekend.

Step 1 of 4

About your brand

So the report is about you.

BFCM ad platforms

We save your contact details, role, spend band, platforms, consent choice and readiness score. Your financial inputs stay in this browser. See our privacy policy.

Complete Step 1 to open Steps 2 to 4.

Step 2 of 4

One order, two weeks

Marketing sets the offer, the auction sets the cost to reach a buyer, ops sets free shipping. They only meet in contribution per order. All amounts in USD.

Replaces anything you've entered with illustrative numbers.

Revenue per order before the BFCM offer

Excludes shipping

Zero if the customer pays

Paid spend ÷ paid-new orders

Your offer

Including free-shipping expense

Your assumption, not a benchmark

The rest is treated as non-paid-new

Used to show the blend

Used for signal exposure

A conscious payback decision; leave blank for zero

Last 30 days scoreboard

Use the same 30 days for both revenue figures.

Step 3 of 4

Purchase signals

Whether each order reaches each platform once, at the discounted value. Your answers are self-reported.

Spend shares entered: 0% (should total 100% across platforms you use)

Meta: browser and server purchases deduplicate

Meta: browser and server purchases deduplicate

Pixel and Conversions API purchase events share the same event ID, so each order counts once.

Google Ads: one primary Purchase action bids

Google Ads: one primary Purchase action bids

Only one purchase conversion action is set as primary for bidding, at the discounted order value.

GA4: unique transaction IDs, discounted prices

GA4: unique transaction IDs, discounted prices

Every purchase has a nonempty, unique transaction ID and records the price actually paid.

Campaign tagging survives redirects

Campaign tagging survives redirects

Campaign names are consistent and tags are not stripped by redirects or link shorteners.

Email and SMS flows tested with real profiles

Email and SMS flows tested with real profiles

Test profiles, including international ones, qualify for the BFCM flows you plan to send.

Shopify baseline is like for like

Shopify baseline is like for like

Session and conversion baselines compare the same definitions across this year and last.

Step 4 of 4

How decisions get made

Planning prompts for your team. Answering them gives no one permission to change your ads.

A written discount floor exists, with a written payback decision covering any exception.
A written paid-new acquisition-cost kill-line exists.
One named person owns the Saturday budget decision and can act without a meeting.
A written reallocation rule defines trigger, threshold, destination and owner.
A decision log will record when, the move, the deciding number, expected result and actual result.
The team agrees on one decision metric reconciled against actual orders.
The Black Friday baseline uses last year's Black Friday on the retail calendar.
Theme, checkout and tracking changes freeze at least seven days before Black Friday.
BFCM-acquired customers stay a separate cohort through January before LTV models and Q1 targets reset.

Takes a second. Runs in your browser.

What we can actually share

From what you typed

Modeled economics, your discount floor and kill-line, the blend, self-reported signal exposure and a dated plan. All based on your inputs.

Patterns across brands

Qualitative guidance from planning with DTC teams, such as checking that each order reaches each platform once. Not specific customer results.

What connected orders can show

Once your store and ad accounts are connected to Consequential, contribution and spend are reconciled against actual orders instead of typed estimates.

We only publish customer results with the customer's permission.

Your report used typed numbers. Connecting is a separate step.

Connect your store and ad accounts to see the same view reconciled against real orders, or book a 30-minute ad spend review with our team.

Book my ad spend reviewGet Started

Frequently Asked Questions

No. The report is computed from the numbers and answers you type. It does not connect to Shopify or ad platforms, verify tracking, establish causal lift or observe campaign results.
Only your contact details, role, spend band, selected platforms, marketing consent and the readiness scores. Your unit economics, revenue figures and dollar results are calculated in your browser and are not sent to us.
Not at the moment. Use Save as PDF at the end of the report to keep a copy.
No. It is a heuristic planning score that weights margin math, scoreboard reconciliation, purchase signals and written decision rules. It is not an empirically validated predictor of results.
We only illustrate an adjustment when your entered ROAS uses platform-claimed revenue. A store-revenue ratio such as MER should not be deflated by the platform claim gap.