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A kids health subscription brand · Health · Subscription

Rebuilding creative strategy around 90-day LTV, not day-one conversion

A subscriber's real value does not show up for months, so the team was scaling ads that converted cheap and churned fast.

Blended LTV lift
After re-ranking creative on lifetime value
90-day
New decision window, replacing day one
Spend redirected
Away from ads that only claimed credit

Their unseen challenge

Optimizing for the wrong customer

Issue
  • Real customer value only became visible months after acquisition.
  • Day-one conversion was the only number fast enough to act on, so it drove every decision.
Effect
  • Ads that converted cheaply and churned by month two kept getting scaled.
  • A custom LTV model in a BI tool took an analyst a full week to refresh, and nobody trusted the pipeline.
Result
  • Two years of optimizing toward the wrong customer.
  • An LTV view no one acted on.
Impact
Creative re-ranked on 90-day LTV

The solution

Attribution Reconciliation plus Creative Performance

Every ad tied to the full subscription lifetime, then ranked on that number instead of the first order.

Full lifecycle attribution

Attribution Reconciliation ties every ad to the entire subscription lifetime, not just the first order.

LTV-based ranking

Creative Performance re-ranks creative by that lifetime number, so cheap-and-churn ads stop looking like winners.

Incrementality

Incrementality separates ads creating new subscribers from ads simply claiming credit for them.

The results

What changed with Consequential

Blended LTV lift

Ranking on lifetime value moved the blended LTV number up.

90-day decision window

The team now acts on a horizon that matches how the business actually earns.

Spend redirected

Budget moved off ads that were claiming credit rather than creating subscribers.

No analyst bottleneck

The LTV view refreshes automatically instead of costing a week of analyst time.

We'd been optimizing for the wrong customer for two years without knowing it.CMO and Head of Growth

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$15B in brand revenue under management · all inbound