All case studies

A pet brand · Pet · DTC

BFCM · $48K four-day budgetCreative IntelligenceFor: Media Buyer

How a pet brand avoided a $106K BFCM sales shortfall

Meta said its top ad returned 4.1x. Store-confirmed sales said 1.9x. The team found out 10 days before the sale.

4.1x vs 1.9x

Return on the hero ad: Meta's number vs the store's

$106K

Gap between expected and real sales on 4 days of spend

61% vs 22%

Orders from new customers, after vs before the budget move

10 days

Before the sale the gap was found

Their unseen challenge

A Black Friday plan built on the platform's number

Issue

The brand planned to put $48K of its four-day Black Friday budget behind its best-performing video ad. Meta reported a 4.1x return, so the plan expected $197K of sales.
The ad had only ever run on about $400 a day, mostly to people who already knew the brand.

Effect

Once the store confirmed the orders, the ad returned 1.9x, and 78% of its orders came from existing customers.
At 6x the spend, the plan would have returned about $91K, not $197K.

Result

A $106K gap between the sales the plan expected and what the spend would deliver.

Impact

$106K BFCM shortfall avoided, new-customer share up from 22% to 61%

The solution

Creatives ranked by store-confirmed return

Ten days out, the media buyer compared every top ad on platform-reported return and store-confirmed return, then split each ad's orders by new and returning customers.

Ranked the top ads

Opened the Creatives tab and listed the top ads by Meta's reported return.

Checked last-click return

Compared against sales the store confirmed: the hero video 1.9x, a second ad 2.8x, a third 2.4x.

Split new vs returning

74% of orders were new customers for the second ad, against 22% for the hero video.

Rebalanced in steps

Moved the plan to $12K, $24K and $12K across the three ads, with a daily sales target to check each step up. Consequential refreshes once a day, so spend was raised in steps.

The results

What changed with Consequential

Four-day sales the plan expected

$197K without Consequential, $119K with it: a realistic target.

Four-day sales it would have returned

$91K on the original plan, $119K on the rebalanced plan.

New customers, share of orders

22% on the original plan, 61% after the budget move.

Timing

The gap was found ten days before the sale, not during it.

Meta ranked that video first. The store ranked it third. We found that ten days before the sale, not during it.Media Buyer, pet brand

More case studies

A consent setting nobody noticed cost $750K and sent CAC up by $2M.

Beauty · Personal Care

International remarketing was dead. Nobody knew why for weeks.

A $40K/mo revenue leak, now caught the same day.

Beauty · Devices

Creative refresh time halved by ranking ads on revenue, not clicks.

Health · Subscription

Creative strategy rebuilt around 90-day LTV, not day-one conversion.

From hearing about problems from customers to catching them in under an hour.

Apparel · Intimates

Ending the blended-metrics argument with one number everyone trusts.

Beauty · Skincare

Three tools became one after outgrowing what a single dashboard could answer.

A regional margin drop caught two weeks before the board review.

Four storefronts run from one Slack channel.

The conversions were happening. The ad platforms never heard about them.

Apparel · Performance

Attribution was solved. Decisions still were not.

Health · Supplements

Retention flows only work if the data reaching them is complete.

Pet · Subscription

A billing failure spike looked like churn until someone checked.

Home Improvement · Retail

Replatforming off Magento without losing the numbers.

Retail · Omnichannel

Warehouse-native intelligence at $250M+.

Supplements · DTC

440 more BFCM customers on the same ad budget.

Home Goods · DTC

A home goods brand reset its BFCM target by $144K, three weeks out.

Find your first leak in 48 hours.

No credit card. 30-minute setup. White-glove onboarding included.

Get Started See pricing →

$15B+ GMV monitored · all inbound