440 more BFCM customers on the same ad budget

A supplements brand capped what a new customer could cost, then reweighted its $162K budget.

$45

The most a new customer could cost, set two weeks out

$54 → $47

Average cost of a new customer

+440

More new customers on the same $162K

3,440

New customers won over BFCM weekend

Their unseen challenge

No limit on what a new customer could cost

Issue

The brand planned 40% off for Black Friday weekend with a $162K ad budget. Nobody had set a limit on what a new customer could cost.
Last year each channel was judged on its own return.

Effect

The weekend won 3,000 new customers at $54 on average, but Meta prospecting cost $71 each and Google non-brand $38.
After a 40% discount a first order earns about $30, so a $71 customer lost money until they bought again.

Result

The spread only showed up in late January, after the sale.

Impact

+440 new customers on the same $162K, cost per new customer down from $54 to $47

The solution

A new-customer cost ceiling, set before the sale

Two weeks before Black Friday, the growth lead worked out what a new customer was worth and set that as a target in Consequential.

Pulled last year's BFCM customers

$30 profit on a first order after discount, and about $15 of repeat profit in the next 90 days.

Set the ceiling

$45 per new customer ($30 plus $15), set as a target in Consequential with an alert if the cost runs over.

Compared channels

Last year's cost per new customer: Meta prospecting $71, creators $44, Google non-brand $38.

Reweighted the budget

Meta prospecting $52K, Google non-brand $58K, creators $52K. The ceiling uses the brand's own repeat rate, and the team scaled in steps.

The results

What changed with Consequential

Limit on cost per new customer

None before, $45 with Consequential.

Average cost of a new customer

$54 down to $47.

New customers on $162K of spend

3,000 up to 3,440.

Same budget

All 440 additional customers came from reweighting, not extra spend.

We had a number for revenue and a number for ROAS, but never one for what a new customer was worth to us. Setting $45 before the sale changed where every dollar went.Growth Lead, supplements brand